Good morning. The first number in any negotiation is the most important one. Most people let the other side set it.
Negotiation.
The Anchoring Trap
In your last negotiation, who set the first number — and did that determine the range everything else landed in?
Anchoring is one of the most robust findings in behavioural economics. When Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman asked people to spin a wheel of fortune — rigged to land on either 10 or 65 — and then estimate the number of African countries in the UN, the groups' averages tracked the wheel. The number they'd seen had nothing to do with the question. But it moved the answer. In negotiation, anchoring is not a trick — it's the dominant structural reality. The first number sets the range that all subsequent offers, counteroffers, and concessions orbit. Whoever sets the anchor shapes the deal. Most people let the other side anchor, then try to negotiate back from a number that was never in their interest. The Anchoring Trap is allowing that to happen — or worse, anchoring too conservatively because you're afraid to seem aggressive.
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