Good morning. Some decisions are worth paying real money to postpone, and today you learn which ones.
Decisions.
Optionality
Which commitment in front of you this week would genuinely be expensive to undo, and what would it cost — a deposit, a break clause, a pilot, three more weeks — to buy yourself the right to decide it once you know more? If you have never put a number on that, the reason is usually one of two: the option is genuinely unaffordable, or deciding now feels braver than admitting what you still don't know.
Stewart Myers, professor of finance at MIT Sloan, coined the term real options in 1977: the observation that a firm's investment opportunities behave like financial options — rights to act, not obligations to act. The consequence is awkward for anyone raised on net present value, because it means a positive number is not on its own a reason to go now. Where a commitment is hard to undo and the fact that would settle it is still coming, the right to decide later has a worth of its own, and committing spends it. So the return has to clear the ordinary hurdle plus the value of the option you are about to kill, which is the arithmetic almost nobody runs. The trap runs in both directions. Options have a price, and people who love keeping doors open pay it forever — a portfolio of half-commitments, none of which ever becomes a business.
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