Good morning. By the time you had an opinion, most of the reasoning had already happened without you.
Decisions.
The Ladder of Inference
Think of the colleague you have quietly filed as unreliable, or the market you have decided is not worth entering: can you separate the few things you actually observed from the story you assembled on top of them? If the whole conviction turns out to rest on two incidents and a tone of voice, you already know why you have never gone back to check — everything that has happened since has agreed with you.
The picture is a ladder standing in a pool of observable data. You select a fraction of what is there. You add meaning drawn from your culture and your history. You build assumptions on that meaning, draw conclusions, adopt beliefs, and act. The climb takes about a second and feels indistinguishable from seeing. The ladder is Chris Argyris's, and it came out of a long study of why capable people reason badly in front of each other — the action science he developed with Donald Schön, and the argument of Overcoming Organizational Defenses (1990). Argyris taught organisational behaviour at Yale and then held a chair at Harvard; the drawing that carried the idea to a wide audience is Rick Ross's, in The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook (1994), the companion volume to Peter Senge's book. And worse than the speed of the climb: it loops. The beliefs at the top decide which data you select at the bottom next time. The evidence keeps agreeing with you, and you keep calling that judgement.
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