Sample frameDay 146·Finance · Growth

Morning. Your accounts contain a speed limit. You've either been obeying it or quietly borrowing to break it.

Finance.

The Sustainable Growth Rate

5 min read·Apply by lunch

The question

If revenue doubled next year while your margin, your payment terms and your stock levels all stayed exactly where they are, how much extra cash would that growth swallow before any of it came back to you? That isn't a matter of opinion — the speed this business can fund is already written in four numbers you filed last year.

The idea

A business that holds its margin, its asset turnover, its leverage and its payout policy steady can grow out of its own earnings at exactly one rate: margin times turnover times leverage, multiplied by the share of profit it keeps rather than distributes. Robert Higgins, professor of finance at the University of Washington, set that out in 1977 in a Financial Management paper whose title asked the question directly — How Much Growth Can a Firm Afford? His answer was arithmetic rather than judgement, and its power is that it cuts in both directions. Grow faster than the rate and the difference has to be filled from somewhere: new equity, more debt, thinner working capital, or a margin you haven't earned yet. Grow slower and cash accumulates, which is a quieter problem with a longer fuse. Growth isn't an ambition here; it's a funding decision. A sale is a source of profit and a use of cash, and those two events arrive months apart.

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