Sample frameDay 314·Sales · Indecision

Morning. The deal you think you're losing to a rival is probably losing to nobody at all.

Sales.

The Indecision Trap

5 min read·Apply by lunch

The question

Take the deal that's been open longest — the one where they liked everything, asked for one more thing, then went quiet: are they choosing a competitor, or are they frightened of choosing at all, and have you been giving both stalls the same treatment for weeks?

The idea

Matthew Dixon and Ted McKenna ran two and a half million recorded B2B sales conversations through a conversation-analytics platform and went looking for why deals die. The JOLT Effect (2022) is the result, and its first finding resets the loss column. Between 40 and 60 per cent of qualified deals end in no decision — no competitor, no winner, nothing bought — and sellers file every one of them under status quo bias, the comfortable customer who'd rather not move. Dixon and McKenna split the category and found that explanation covers only 44 per cent. The other 56 per cent is indecision, which isn't comfort at all. Those buyers wanted to change and were frightened of changing wrongly: of picking the wrong option, of missing something they should've found, of the thing underperforming with their name on the requisition. The authors call it FOMU, fear of messing up, and it beats fear of missing out, because blame lands on one person while the upside gets shared around. That 56/44 split is the whole morning, because the two losses look identical from your chair and want opposite treatment. And the diagnosis is available — the study found three distinct tells, each audible in discovery, each pointing at a different repair.

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